Alastair\'s Blog

Archive for February, 2010

The underworld

Thursday, February 25th, 2010

Sorry folks - not the mystical World of Hades reached only by crossing the river Styx.  Instead the murky underworld of crime;  online fraud has hit us - and that is scarey!

We all get spam emails and countless viagra offers, etc., but duff transactions with validated cards?  Now that IS news - at least to us anyway.  Beware any overseas originating credit card registered to a UK address, even if all the addresses match…New layer of security

All remedied now with a new layer of security in place but curious how Barclays Merchant Services, Sagepay and 3rd Man do not have a cohesive policy of prevention between them - thanks guys! Any loss is born by the merchant, of course.

I wonder, though, if one can get caught up in a suckers loop of some sort?  Reason being, we have now had two stolen or cloned UK cards (again validated?!) attempt to be used to purchase champagne - but our human alarm bells rang because the purchases did not fit with the normal pattern so we checked in the old fashioned way and you know what:  our telephone messages were not returned…  Rebbeca RomeroBeware Rebecca Romero - but not the real one, of course!

And now we have a gazillion spam comments attached to various blog posts and my email account has been hijacked - apologies if I have not sanctioned your genuine comment or responded to an email query but I will as soon as normal service is resumed.

Roll on spring - and an end to this perpetual cold (and rain) - thanks Withnail; we do need a jukebox, methinks!

Pip pip.

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Champagne exports

Monday, February 1st, 2010

In 2007, the UK imported more bottles of champagne than at any other time in its history - just over 39 million bottles.  Total harvest that year was also a record 390 million bottles, according to figures from the CIVC and reiterated by research from Giles Fallowfield, although obviously there is a lag in production time from vine to wine.

Since then, the CIVC (Champagne trade body), advise a 12% fall in UK import in 2008 and a further 30% fall in 2009 (figures only available to the end of October so not yet officially published).

champ-stats-1A net fall of 39.4% peak to trough would equate on a full year basis to a 15.37m bottle reduction from 2007  - meaning the UK is forecast to have imported under 24m bottles which is back to 1999 levels.  And that before any de-stocking is taken into consideration.  Ouch!

Reasons for this:  champagne has been out of fashion;  there has been little to celebrate and the cost has soared by over 30% - mainly due to the collapse of £/€ relationship - as well as numerous Government duty increases and high historic grape prices at 2007 and 2008 harvest feeding through to the cost of the bubbly ex cellars.Champagne global exports/exports to the UK

So, are we through the dip or trough?  Let’s hope so.  Aside from diminished merriment, the implications in France have already been extremely serious with harvest yields reduced by negotiation to below 10,000kg/ha from 14,400 the previous year as I reported in harvest yields.  Assuming consumption steadies at 2009 levels then the inventory in French cellars will fall back into line over the next 24 months with price and product stability holding.

BUT - the big question is what about the planned Appellation extension of 12,000ha?  This was due to start coming on line in 2020 to satiate the demand from all the emerging champagne markets, particularly China, Russia and India.  Interesting to see from the CIVC’s own figures that these three countries combined show an import decline to October 2009 in excess of 50% - to just under 1m  bottles in total.

Now that is sobering:  put simply, in 2009 1/3 of the World’s population consumed as many bottles of champagne as 2.5m people did in the UK…

Don’t have nightmares.

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